A Slave to Variance

small seeds

2008-08-20T21:57:29Z

I never knew this before, but then I wasn't really aware of much when it happened. Aparently, one of the many seeds of the evangelical movement was the 1971 Green v. Connally ruling which said charitable organizations couldn't discrminate based on race. This meant that places like Bob Jones Univeristy lost it's tax exempt status.

Aparently, some guy Teri Gross was talking to today thinks this ruling played a more significant role in coalescing the evangelical right movement than Roe v. Wade.

Me? I never knew what the big deal about BJU was till now.

McCain doesn't understand the internet

2008-08-20T19:53:03Z

markgritter does a better job discussing McCain's backwards looking, protectionist, pork barrel technology policy than I ever could.

Always the lesser of two evils, isn't it

2008-08-19T17:20:16Z

But like the rest of America:

[via wwdn]

Statistical certainty

2008-08-18T16:54:10Z

I've always had some doubts as to the methodology of 538.org. It appears that a professor from Princeton does as well.

I'm sure this was just carelessness on his part, but really... ?

"Anderson, when these methods were applied to 2004 data, the result on Election Eve was Bush 286 EV, Kerry 252 EV - which was, in fact, the final result. This is described in the WSJ articles on this site. (However, the fact that the calculation was exactly correct may have been due to chance. I need to analyze this further.)"

Uh yeah. Maybe it was due to chance. Or maybe your statistical methods are so damn good you're able to generate predictions with a margin of error equal to zero.

*sigh*

Powerline blog, comprehension problems

2008-08-18T02:53:33Z

Inspired by rcfox crediting the powerline blog with the feat of accuratly reporting, I thought I'd do some simple analysis on their analysis.

Politics is a game of words. So is the law. Given that, you'd think that lawyers pontificating on politics would at least be aware of this, and recognize the game for what it is, and call out the wordsmiths on the game, instead of falling for it hook line and sinker.

In today's democratic radio address Pelosi said:

"President Bush even refused our request to suspend buying oil at record prices for the federal stockpile until we passed a law, and the price fell by over $20 a barrel."

Powerline's inept parsing of the statement:

"Her talk consisted largely of ... making the absurd claim that the recent $20 per barrel drop in the price of oil was due to legislation mandating that we stop buying petroleum the the strategic reserve."

Of course, that's not what she said. In all likelihood, that's what she wanted you to think she said. She is clearly using the language to lead the listener to make this inference while at the same time remaining factually correct. When politicians engage in this sort of content free double speak intended to mislead, they certainly should be called out on it. But when lawyers can't even be bothered to properly parse political language, well...

That's just embarrassing.

The twofold irony is that the blogger then writes:

"I sometimes wonder: how does it feel to give a speech that you know will be believed only by the stupid and the completely uninformed? Somehow, Pelosi doesn't seem to mind."

Me? I sometimes wonder how it feels to call yourself stupid and uninformed, without even realizing it.

The case for war

2008-08-17T02:26:51Z

As some of you might know, the Bush administration waged a disinformation campaign to get us into Iraq.

The lastest feather in Bush's cap is the news that the administration ordered the CIA to forge a key memo in the case for war. The memo was so "good" that Bill O'Riley spent four days ranting about it.

The response from the administration (paraphrased):
George Tenet (head of CIA): Gee. I don't remember that.
Robert Richer (key testimony): It wasn't Tenet who issued the order.

What will Wall Street Journal reporters dig up next?

You haul 16 years, and whadya get?

2008-08-14T02:54:23Z

Like any good fractal, markets have self similarity at all resolutions. What does this mean? Not only is it possible to be down after a year, but it's also possible to be down after 10 years. (Those who are "in the know" will also understand that you can also be down after 100 years.)

Looking at that chart, it's a useful excercise to consider US demographics in light of long term periods of growth, stability, and retraction.

I don't have anything useful to say about it right now...

Olympic swimming is on.

[chart via plizak]

Demographic supply and demand.

2008-08-13T16:01:51Z

We all know how supply and demand works.

Consider the baby boomers. They've spent a lifetime amassing assets, and are even as we speak easing into retirement. Demographically, baby boomers make up more than their fair share of the population. Because there are more of them, their demand shifts the fundamental price at which goods are exchange to a higher level. In other words, if the baby boomers are buying, prices go up. But now that they are easing into retirement, they have begun selling their assets as a group. And when they sell as a group, the pool that are selling into has a good deal fewer buyers than when they bought. And so the prices of those collective assets go down.

So, how long will baby boomers be liquidating assets? It's hard to say, but I expect the most dramatic phase of the liquidation to be over the next ten years, as retirement age eclipses their productivity, and the current economic downturn forces many of the less well off to sell what they do have just to get by -- unfortunatly at about the worst time possible.

I would not be surprised if the S&P 500 index remains flat over the next ten years (inflation adjusted).

To do/done did

2008-08-13T03:20:39Z

1. sold all my euros last week
2. buy more gold

American Idol + Market Junkie

2008-08-12T17:33:44Z

[via plizak, appolgoies to those of you who accidentlally listen to this twice. :)]

Quote of the day

2008-08-10T17:06:14Z

"Daddy Hat"

- Evan Francis Prock

MythTV rocks

2008-08-09T04:18:38Z

Nothing like watching the opening ceremonies of the Olympis at 150% of regular speed. Some people waste 4 hours watching this fluffff, me I watse only 2 hours.

Oh good lord

2008-08-09T03:05:02Z

I surrender.

I surrender.

My wife just mocked me for not being on facebook.

*sigh*

Simple reality and two interpretations

2008-08-09T00:43:42Z

1) Republicans are not fiscal conservatives
2) The fiscal policies of the president have little to do with the economy

One of the two of these is assuredly true, and yet some people like to make a big deal about the fiscal and economic policies of presidents. So, regardless of which interpretation is true, people who go ga ga over the economic minutae of either candidate are, shall we say:

"Drinking what they're selling."

Is this who I think it was?

2008-08-07T03:58:35Z

The glasses look hauntingly familiar.

Hate missing BARGE.

If short selling is bad, maybe we should halt long selling as well?

2008-07-31T14:41:14Z

[via tbp]

"Change" (a.k.a The more things change...)

2008-07-25T05:47:46Z

So patrissimo is up in arms about collusion between government and the private sector.

Me? I went to the dentist. And if you're going to go through the misery of going to the dentist, why not magnify the pain tenfold by listening to a recent Democracy Now! podcast?

While I'm sure rcfox isn't much of an Amy Goodman fan, I'm sure he'd love the half hour long segment about what a flip flopping corporate whore Obama is. I wonder if Obama will be toting the offical "Amnesty for Sale" tote bag during the convention:

no barge

2008-07-21T21:20:31Z

Due to aforealludedto family medial stuff, I will not be able to attend barge.

saddenz

:(

Random Poll

2008-07-18T23:32:52Z

How many people on my friends list live near to Saint Louis?

How safe is FDIC?

2008-07-16T15:09:34Z

Burried at the bottom of an obituary to free markets at The Big Picture is a note about IndyMac and FDIC. It seems that this modest bank is likely to eat up 1/6 of the reserves of the FDIC.

Given that we are likely to see maybe 100 (maybe more) bank failures, is there a chance that FDIC may institute a modification on the insurance? Right now, I believe that deposits are guaranteed on a per person basis, not a per account basis. One possible change they could make is to remove the double indemnity for joint accounts. Are there others? Another issue is what will happen if the reserve is "tapped" and repayments come in the form of "printed" money. There's nothing like getting repaid with paper money that is even more paper-like than the paper you put in.

[edited to add link from do*k]

I declare these markets officially fucked

2008-07-15T14:39:11Z

I'm getting jittery. I feel like I'm riding a negative bubble down.

Porkins: "Stay on target."

At any minute it'll snap back and destroy my positions.

Porkins: "Stay on target."

WSOP Shares

2008-07-14T20:12:33Z

Despite the family emergency, I was able to play all events (though I might not be able to attend BARGE). Total buy-ins was advertised $31,000. My total cash was the eight place finish in the limit shootout which yeilded a gross of $10,335. At this point you should feel alternativly results oriented bad and/or equity deposit good, as my friend mgrape made $27,511 for an eight place finish in a nearly identically size tournament. There was a brief period (after my KK was cracked by QQ) where I had fewer chips than the drunk guy. I can only thank the poker gods that I did not bust before he.

At 1/4 of 1%, that makes the shares worth just a hair under $25.84. If you sent money on stars I will remit the share value there later today. For those of you who did not xfer to me on stars, please msg me with information on how you would like to be repaid.

update: most everyone should have received stars transfers by now. If you have not, I'll be contacting you during the week to make other arrangemnts.

Smarty monay?

2008-07-14T04:49:20Z

fivethirtyeight.com has Obama @ 69.6% to win.
intrade.com says people with skin in the game put it at 65.9% to win for Obama.

Will start sending out WSOP rooting shares tomorrow.

lousy reporting by pokernews (duh!)

2008-07-11T21:17:33Z

Adam Schoenfeld just received a brutal knockout blow...

All-in preflop
Eskeland: Kd Jd
Schoenfeld: Tc Td

Schoenfeld loses.

Yeah, totally brutal. Those 54/46 matchups almost never fall to the underdog.

I love corey_m

2008-07-11T06:08:19Z

Not only did he call the recent rout, but he also pushed me over the edge to get back into the "shorting GSE" game exactly today *despite* having to fade 20-30% drops for the day when I got in.

And what do you know?

"Under a conservatorship, the shares of Fannie and Freddie would be worth little or nothing..."

Can you say ding!

Well, that is unless some other surprise news comes out between midnight and morning.

Clearly I owe him a dinner or ten.